Saturday, July 8

Play "Fads or Future"


Yo-Yo, Rubiks Cube, Break Dancing, Tamagotchi, LiveStrong Wristbands...

Things move so quickly in technology that it's hard to spot the Fad from the new industry. The first-mover advantage has such a big part to play in many tech businesses. If it's fresh, fun or useful it's gonna get passed around the world in weeks. Just as you've plugged in a bank of servers to cope with new found fame (Ha, ha, remember WELCOME TO MY HOMEPAGE!!! I KISS YOU) will it all dissappear again in a flash?

For the more substantial sites which of the current crop will pull through? Let's play Fad or Future:

Ebay

YouTube

Digg

MySpace

Wikipedia

Craigslist

Flickr

In my view the weakest link in this list is Craigslist. It's struggling to have the impact overseas that it's had in the States, plus it isn't connected in to other internet businesses (yet).

Right now, all of these businesses are benefiting from FAD take-up. I happy to click to see anything that's new - even if I only visit it once or twice. I think Ebay may suffer from this, it's fun whilst it's new but doesn't it just become a place to sell old stuff - full of professional buyers & sellers? As it matures the casual users may subside (perhaps out of frustration for being gazumped in the last second). YouTube could suffer from this new FAD curse.


Broadband penetration is still very much in its infancy globally, so most of these sites have traffic somewhere to the left of the green line. But unless they keep it fresh, fun and be clear about the propositions, they can just as quickly be the next Fad.

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